TWO PRACTICAL APPROACHES FOR DETERMINING THE CONFIDENCE INTERVAL OF RAINFALL DEPTH PERCENTILES1

ABSTRACT: A simple simulation type approach and a statistical method are proposed for determining the confidence interval of the T‐year frequency rainfall percentiles (or precipitation extremes) for generalized extreme value (GEV) distributions. The former method is based on the Monte Carlo testing procedure. To generate realizations, the covariance structure of the three parameters of GEV is investigated using an observed information matrix of the likelihood function. For distributions with realistic parameters, the correlation between the location and the scale parameters is practically constant when the shape parameter varies around values close to its optimal value. The latter method is based on likelihood ratio statistics. In the case where the joint confidence surface for shape parameters and estimates is plotted with lines of best estimates, the region where the estimated best percentile value can be chosen as a possible estimate is part of the joint confidence surface. The projection of this bounded region on axis of percentile is defined as the effective confidence interval in this research. The use of this effective interval as the confidence interval of the percentile of T‐year frequency rainfall is particularly recommended because it is stable for T and it reflects variations in all three parameters of GEV appropriately.     

模糊回归分析和数据融合方法

提出一种新的模糊回归分析和数据融合方法 ,该方法能够将多种不同条件 (不同仪器、人员、环境条件等 )下的测量数据进行融合 ,特别是可以将不同量纲的测量值进行数据融合。实际应用表明 ,模糊回归分析能够很好地消除工程测量中无法通过仪器校准的系统误差 ,数据融合方法可以减小其偶然误差 ,大大提高测量精度     

微波技术在分析检验与污染治理中的应用

综述了微波技术的特点及其近几年在分析检验与污染治理中应用的进展情况，包括消解样品、脱附、显色、干燥、萃取、污水处理、废气处理、固体废弃物处理等方面；与传统技术比较，微波技术有许多优点，其在现代工业和科学研究领域里极具推广价值和应用前景。     

Community attitudes to cystic fibrosis carrier testing in England: A pilot study

Inexpensive and accurate carrier testing for cystic fibrosis (CF) will be possible in the near future. There are no existing studies on the attitudes of English persons in the community to carrier testing for CF or any other recessive disorder. We have conducted a trial study of 166 persons at two schools, two doctors' surgeries, and a family planning clinic. Only a minority had clear pre-existing knowledge of cystic fibrosis and its genetic nature. However, over 80 per cent of those questioned expressed interest in knowing their carrier status. Although it is well known that uptake can only be assessed when a service is in place, and while further studies are required to confirm that testing will be of interest to couples of reproductive age with no previous knowledge of CF, the data strongly suggest that there will be interest in communitywide testing for CF carrier status when such a test becomes available in the United Kingdom.     

重型机动车实际排放特性与影响因素的实测研究

利用美国Sensors公司生产的SEMTECHD车载排放测试仪在上海随机选择了7辆重型柴油车开展实际道路的排放测试,该实验累积测试道路长度为186km,共取得29090个逐秒的有效工况点数据,其中城市主干道12979个,次干道12368个,快速干道3743个.给出了车辆在不同道路上的工况点分布,分析了速度、加速度对燃油消耗、尾气排放的影响.测试结果表明,在选定的城市道路上,车流的平均怠速工况比为17%,加速工况比23.6%,等速工况比为31.0%,减速工况比为28.5%.被测车辆的CO、THC、NOx平均排放因子分别为(4.41±2.46)g·km-1、(1.77±1.17)g·km-1和(6.96±1.93)g·km-1,车辆排放状况因车速、加速度等因素而不同.测试结果基本反映了目前上海道路的交通状况和柴油卡车的排放现状,同时也说明过低的车速和频繁加减速是加重机动车污染的重要原因.     

金属材料腐蚀检(监)测常用方法概述

从机械方法、无损检测方法和电化学方法3个方面简要介绍了常用的腐蚀检(监)测方法,并对各种检验方法的特点和适用范围进行了比较.在实际的生产实践中应根据具体情况,依据可靠性和适用性的原则选择合适的方法,从而达到高效、准确的检验目的.     

水电站大型起重平衡梁的安全检测与复核

对某水电站桥式起重机并车抬吊使用的大型平衡梁系统进行了全面的安全检测与复核,获取了有效的数据与信息,并据此对平衡梁的安全状况进行了评估,为同类吊具的安全检测提供参考.     

城市第三产业环境管理的基本原则探讨

第三产业迅速发展所带来的环境问题日益成为影响区域环境质量及市民环境投诉的重要原因。文章分析了第三产业环境管理中存在的主要问题，初步探讨了第三产业环境管理的基本原则与污染控制途径。     

关于自然资源受损评估

自然资源受损赔偿是一个比较复杂、而对环境保护却很重要的问题 ,文中根据国际溢油会议论文集中有关这方面的论述 ,特别是评估方法 ,作一综合介绍     

水中超低浓度化学需氧量检测的能力验证

能力验证是利用比对确定实验室检测能力的一种活动,为验证水中超低浓度化学需氧量检测数据的可靠性,云南省环境监测中心站组织34个实验室对其进行了检测验证.每个实验室检测结果的评价主要采用稳健Z比分数评价法.评价的统计结果显示:检测结果满意率为79.4%,最小值1.3mg/L,最大值25.3mg/L平均值19.3mg/L,中位值19.4mg/L,检测结果中位值与标准值的相对误差为-2.0%,测量中不存在系统误差.采用重铬酸盐容量法,HACH微回流分光光度法和快速密闭催化消解法三种方法均无显著性差异,其测试结果均具有较好的准确性和可比性.